The trade deficit between Mexico and the United States, a recurring theme in Donald Trump‘s discourse, grew significantly during his term in office, despite his constant promises to reduce it. The numbers leave no room for doubt: far from decreasing, the economic gap widened, reflecting a reality that contradicts the former president’s narrative.
A Deficit that Set Records Under Trump
In 2017, when Trump took office, the trade deficit with Mexico amounted to $69.058 billion. By 2020, that figure had already reached $110.964 billion, a significant increase compared to the years of Barack Obama, who left office with a deficit of $63.574 billion after starting with $47.762 billion.
The T-MEC, promoted as a solution to balance trade, failed to reverse this trend. On the contrary, trade between Mexico and the United States continued to favor the former. This dynamic continues in Joe Biden‘s administration, where the deficit reached 152.473 billion dollars in 2023, and experts anticipate even higher figures by the end of the year.
A large part of the deficit is concentrated in the automotive sector, which represents almost 80% of the trade gap. In 2009, the imbalance in this industry was 20,412 million dollars; by 2023, it reached 121,764 million. The Mexican automotive industry has become a pillar for the United States, with auto parts produced in Mexico needed to manufacture 90% of the vehicles in that country.
Mexico: Deficit or Trade Success?
Although Trump insists on calling the deficit a sign of economic abuse by Mexico, specialists argue that it reflects the strength of integration between the North American economies. Adriana García Hernández, from “Mexico, How are we doing?”, highlights that this internal trade strengthens the region’s productive chains, making them less dependent on external inputs and more competitive against powers such as China and the BRICS.
She also rules out that the deficit means job losses in the U.S., as labor shortages remain a major challenge for the manufacturing industry.
The Return of Tariffs as a Strategy
With a possible return of Trump to the White House, analysts anticipate that his approach will be toughened, with proposed tariffs of up to 60% for Chinese products and between 10% and 20% for other trading partners. However, studies warn that these measures are likely to aggravate the deficit, as happened in his first term.
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