Seven years ago, Vladimir Putin confidently proclaimed a victory in Syria, pointing to the success of his military intervention in support of Bashar Assad‘s government. However, that image of control now seems to be fading following the collapse of the Syrian regime in the face of a rebel offensive.
This unexpected turn not only calls into question Russia‘s achievements in the region, but also redefines its global influence at a delicate time.
A Strategic Gamble in the Middle East and Syria
Russia bet big in 2015 by deploying troops and equipment to prop up Assad, who was facing imminent collapse amid the civil war. Through the operation known as “Syrian Express”, Moscow transported massive resources to Syria and consolidated its military presence at bases such as Hemeimeem and Tartus.
That move allowed the Kremlin to regain a position of relevance in the Middle East, transforming itself into a determining actor in the region.
In addition, the Syrian conflict offered Russian forces a laboratory to test advanced weapons and gain key military experience. These victories strengthened Moscow and gave Putin the confidence to take bigger risks, such as invading Ukraine in 2022.
The Fall of Assad and New Realities
The rebel offensive, backed by Turkey, exposed the structural weaknesses of the Syrian regime. An army weakened by international sanctions and an economy on the verge of collapse could not sustain Assad‘s power. Although Russia and Iran tried to intervene, their resources were limited. The Kremlin prioritizes the war in Ukraine while Tehran faces tensions with Israel and protracted sanctions.
The result was an accelerated collapse that defies Russian strategy in Syria. Although Assad sought refuge in Moscow, his departure does not guarantee stability, and Russia will have to rethink its position in a country now under the control of new authorities.
Military Bases Under Uncertainty
Russia‘s facilities in Hemeimeem and Tartus, critical to its military logistics in the Mediterranean and Africa, are in a limbo. Although the new Syrian authorities have promised not to attack them, their future depends on uncertain agreements amid an unstable political environment. The loss of these bases would mean a strategic blow that would weaken Russia’s ability to project its power in the region.
The collapse of the Syrian regime represents a direct challenge to Russia‘s global influence. In addition to undermining its prestige in the Middle East, this setback could harden Putin‘s stance on other conflicts, such as Ukraine, as he seeks to offset this defeat with a more assertive position in international negotiations.
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