Texas Democratic Representative Henry Cuellar is facing a critical moment in his electoral career as he enters his first race since the bribery accusation against him. This situation is unfolding in an electoral context where Republicans are intensifying their efforts to expand their influence in a region that has traditionally been a Democratic Party stronghold.
Cuellar and his wife have declared their innocence in the face of the allegations, which include accepting nearly $600,000 in bribes from an Azerbaijan-linked energy company.
A new challenge in the 28th district
This time around, Cuellar will face Republican Jay Furman, a new face in politics and a Navy veteran. The election is significant as it represents the first electoral challenge for Cuellar since the indictments. Despite the controversy, interest on the part of Republicans in unseating Cuellar has waned compared to the 2022 election, when a multi-million dollar attempt to unseat him resulted in a decisive victory for him.
In the 15th District, another focal point of the race, Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz is preparing to face Democrat Michelle Vallejo again. De La Cruz, who made history by becoming the first Republican to win a seat in South Texas, is looking to reassert her position after an 8 percentage point victory in 2022.
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Her campaign has focused on promoting tougher border security policies, while Vallejo has focused her platform on protecting Social Security and Medicare, crucial programs for the area’s Latino and working-class population.
Shifts in political preferences
In addition, Republicans have focused their attention on the race between Democrat Vicente Gonzalez and former Representative Mayra Flores. Flores, considered an emerging figure within the Republican Party, is seeking to regain her former seat after being defeated by Gonzalez in 2022.
House Speaker Mike Johnson has endorsed Flores in her campaign, which has raised more funds than Gonzalez, highlighting the importance of this election for the Republican Party nationally.
Shifts in political preferences along the Texas-Mexico border are evident. In 2020, many counties that were once strong Democratic supports, such as Hidalgo and Zapata, showed a swing toward Republicans, reflecting a shift in voter concerns, especially around border security. This phenomenon has led Republicans to invest significantly in what were once districts considered safe for Democrats.
Despite these losses in some areas, Democrats have also closed the gap at the state level. In the 2020 presidential election, then-President Donald Trump won Texas by a margin of less than six points, the narrowest for a Republican candidate in decades. This evolving electoral landscape shows an increasingly competitive South Texas, where the 2024 election promises to be a crucial battleground for both parties.
