Canadian politics is going through a moment of uncertainty. The surprising resignation of Justin Trudeau on January 6 has set off a series of events that could accelerate the general elections scheduled for the fall of 2025. Among the names being mentioned to succeed him is Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party and a 45-year-old former minister. The election is expected to occur much earlier than anticipated, with a possible early vote by the end of March.
Although the electoral calendar seems rushed, the current Canadian Prime Minister has assured that he will remain in office until his party elects a successor. Geneviève Tellier, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, notes that the process of appointing a new leader in the Liberal Party could take several months due to the lack of prominent figures within their ranks.
The Race with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party
Pierre Poilievre, who took over as leader of the Conservative Party in 2022, has been gaining ground in the polls. A survey conducted in November 2024 placed him 19 points ahead of Trudeau. This politician has become known for his straightforward style, his criticism of elites, and his rejection of traditional media, which brings him closer to figures like Donald Trump. His “populist” character has garnered followers among voters who feel distant from the Liberal Party, especially those who do not identify with the current government’s policies on climate change and the economy.
One of the key points in Pierre Poilievre’s campaign is his strong opposition to carbon taxes, one of Trudeau’s main measures to mitigate climate change. Poilievre has promised to eliminate these taxes once he comes to power. Additionally, his proposal to privatize the public broadcaster CBC/Radio-Canada and his defense of bitcoin as an alternative against inflation reinforce his image as a politician opposed to state intervention in citizens’ lives.
Freedom Convoy
Throughout his career, Pierre Poilievre has cultivated a controversial leader persona. In 2022, he aligned himself with the anti-vaccine movement that led the “Freedom Convoy” in Ottawa, a protest led by truckers that blocked the Canadian capital against Covid-19 restrictions. This support for a populist movement often associated with the far-right has earned him both criticism within his own party and fervent support from certain sectors of Canadian society that share his rejection of Trudeau’s policies.
Although his style resembles Trump’s, the situation in Canada presents nuances. Pierre Poilievre has not focused his discourse on immigration, a topic that polarized debate in the United States. Furthermore, his more moderate stance on Canadian borders contrasts with his American counterpart’s hardline approach. However, his electoral strategy is based on a strong contrast with the current government and a proposal for quick solutions to economic and social problems affecting many Canadians.
Measures Against USMCA
Pierre Poilievre has also shown willingness to take decisive action on international matters. Recently, the conservative leader expressed his desire to reconsider Canada’s relationship with Mexico within the USMCA framework, questioning Mexico’s presence in the treaty and suggesting that it might be beneficial for Canada to exclude it from the agreement if conditions are right. This positioning has sparked debate as it could alter trade dynamics among the three member countries.
Trudeau’s recent downfall has left Pierre Poilievre in a favorable position to capitalize on the Prime Minister’s weakness, and his leadership could be key to a conservative victory in upcoming elections. Although Canadian politics is known for its moderation and aversion to aggressive campaigns, Poilievre seems willing to take the fight directly to the polls. With a solid base of support and a clear message against Trudeau’s policies, Pierre Poilievre could be poised to steer Canadian politics in a new direction, with a horizon of change that may be closer than many expect.
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